Panelbase, 30th Nov-5th Dec 2018

Panelbase, with these all these polls you’re really spoiling us. For the third month on the trot there’s been a batch of Panelbase polling out, seemingly taking YouGov’s place as the other semi-regular pollster alongside Survation.

Display format;

Holyrood Voting Intention and Projection (Tracker)

Constituency;

  • SNP – 41% (+2 / -6)
  • Conservative – 25% (-2 / +3)
  • Labour – 23% (-1 / nc)
  • Lib Dem – 6% (nc / -2)
  • Green – 3% (nc / +2)

Regional;

  • SNP – 38% (+1 / -4)
  • Conservative – 26% (nc / +3)
  • Labour – 22% (nc / +3)
  • Lib Dem – 7% (+1 / +2)
  • Green – 6% (nc / -1)
  • UKIP – 1% (-1 / -1)

As ever in this right between elections period, this poll isn’t suggesting any actual movement, but instead a bit of shuffling around the margin of error. Margin of error shuffle or not, it is notable that at 38% the SNP are on their highest list vote poll since March 2017.

Remember too that they have tended to rate the Lib Dems and Greens slightly lower than everyone else, which with a spate of Panelbase polls in quick succession has given a bit of a depressed look to the trends for both parties.

If we project that into seats it might look like;

  • SNP – 58 (+1 / -5)
  • Conservative – 34 (nc / +3)
  • Labour – 26 (-3 / +2)
  • Lib Dem – 7 (+2 / +2)
  • Green – 4 (nc / -2)

Again it’s the usual story of a balance tipped towards the pro-Union parties in constitutional terms, with one of the SNP’s better seat shares balanced out by that 6% stubbornly knocking Greens down a couple.

In terms of projected margins, the SNP are looking a bit more snugly ensconced in a few seats than last month’s poll suggested.

Westminster Voting Intention (Tracker)

  • SNP – 37% (nc / nc)
  • Conservative – 26% (-2 / -3)
  • Labour – 26% (+1 / -1)
  • Lib Dem – 6% (-1 / -1)
  • Green – 2% (nc / +2)
  • UKIP – 2% (nc / +2)

All quiet on the Westminster front too – that’s enough to potentially flip a few seats though, thanks to first past the post.

Independence Voting Intention (Tracker)

  • Yes – 45% (+2)
  • No – 51% (-1)
  • Don’t Know – 4% (-1)

Once Don’t Knows are excluded;

  • Yes – 47% (+2/ +2)
  • No – 53% (-2 / -2)

No real excitement on the big constitutional question, but this is the highest Panelbase have found Independence support to be since one of those very short lived post-Brexit “sod it, give us independence” polls.

Brexit Voting Intention

  • Remain – 61% (nc)
  • Leave – 36% (+2)
  • Don’t Know – 3% (-1)

Once Don’t Knows are excluded;

  • Remain – 63% (-1 / +1)
  • Leave – 37% (+1 / +1)

Okay so the Brexit figures are supremely boring – we all know Scotland is heavily Remain – but there’s are some interesting additional questions on Brexit (and incorporating Independence) at least. Bear in mind this was all conducted before May’s astonishing pulling of the meaningful vote on Brexit.

If May doesn’t get a majority for her Brexit deal in the Commons, would you favour another general election;

  • Yes – 51%
  • No – 32%
  • Don’t Know – 18%

Same scenario, should she resign;

  • Yes – 54%
  • No – 29%
  • Don’t Know – 17%

Same scenario, would you favour another Independence referendum;

  • Yes – 40%
  • No – 47%
  • Don’t Know – 13%

So should the Deal fall, as seems likely if it ever does actually come before the Commons, Scots want May’s resignation and fresh elections, but no Independence referendum.

Whether Independence or a No Deal Brexit would be better for Scotland;

  • Independence – 46%
  • No Deal Brexit – 32%
  • Don’t Know – 22%

Excluding Don’t Knows;

  • Independence – 59%
  • No Deal Brexit – 41%

Whether Independence or a Deal Brexit would be better for Scotland;

  • Independence – 45%
  • Deal Brexit – 41%
  • Don’t Know – 14%

Excluding Don’t Knows

  • Independence – 53%
  • Deal Brexit – 47%

Interestingly, Scots overall do think Independence would be better than pretty much any form of Brexit, but don’t want a referendum on it, and currently wouldn’t vote in favour of Independence. There are perhaps a few useful things to be drawn from that for people on all sides.

Firstly, the usual reminder that what voters say they favour in these extra-hypothetical situations isn’t necessarily how they’d vote. Secondly, dire warnings that Independence would be worse than any Brexit aren’t believed by most Scots. And thirdly, that the belief that Independence may be “better” than Brexit doesn’t necessarily lead to support for Independence.

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